Elephants
Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post.
Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes.
Last week
I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss.
There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.
Things I'm right about (so far):
1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor: With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.
A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines.
If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway).
And if you still don't believe me, watch
his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes.
2.Browns Offense is fine: Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.
Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent.
So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt.
I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield.
3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1 Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.
Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season.
And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here.
Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast.
Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are
more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).
Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!
HA! Next section!
Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:
1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good. If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.
Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times.
Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green
all night:
A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward.
Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.
Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target.
2. Rodgers is back. ...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.
Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully
back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts.
Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach.
Rodgers is pff
top-graded QB right now btw.
Fresh takes:
1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL. The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (
top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant.
Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position.
They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it.
2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield. Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table.
Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...
in high school:
Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.
He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out.
A couple of elephants make this one a good bet:
(a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2.
(b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done).
Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week:
https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9 The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an
opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily
want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game.
Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP.
Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game.
No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt.
3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player. Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets.
Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic.
One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field.
4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade: Jets
Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams.
Vikings
Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2.
Teams to be worried about: Broncos
Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go.
Detroit
Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral.
Texans
BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.
Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions
WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.
- JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
- Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
- Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
- Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.
I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!
Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck!
EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon.
EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.
When: 11/14/2020
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Coach: Ed Orgeron
Mascot: Mike the Tiger
2019: 15-0, SEC Champions, CFP Champions
Offense
Scoring Offense: 35.8 pts/gm (34th)
Total Offense: 458 yds/gm (25th)
Passing: 338.4 yds/gm (12th)
Rushing: 119.6 rush yds/gm (100th)
Misc. stats: 33.3% 3rd down conv. (97th), 71.43% 4th down conv. (32nd), 24.4 1st downs/gm (30th), RZ %’s – TD 25% (64th), score 87.5% (52nd), 13 sacks allowed (77th), 21 TFL allowed (47th), 50th+ in plays of 10+, 20+, and 30+ yards from scrimmage
Returning starters: 2 (plus 1 opting out of 2020 season)
The LSU offense was undoubtedly the biggest story of the 2019 season. Known for traditional ground-and-pound offenses under Les Miles, LSU ran a spread offenses with a blend of RPO and West Coast tactics. The change came with new passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach Joe Brady. Brady brought a new playbook and philosophy with the goal of getting players the ball in space. This was extremely effective, with QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase setting multiple records for their respective positions.
With 2020 comes lots of replacing and rebuilding for LSU’s offense. Every draft-eligible member of the 2019 offense is now in the NFL, which simultaneously explains last year’s success and bodes poorly for 2020’s prospects. The key returners for offensive production are WR Terrace Marshall and RT Austin Deculus. LSU must replace offensive guru Joe Brady (Carolina Panthers OC), QB Joe Burrow (NFL), WR Justin Jefferson (NFL), WR Ja’Marr Chase (Opt-Out), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (NFL), TE Thaddeus Moss (NFL), C Lloyd Cushenberry (NFL), OG Damien Lewis (NFL), LT Saahdiq Charles (NFL), WTE Stephen Sullivan (NFL), OG Adrian Magee (NFL), WR Derrick Dillon (NFL), and backup OT Badara Traore (NFL). In total, LSU returns a starting lineman and wide receiver on offense, while losing #1 and #2 WRs, #1 RB, #1 TE, and 4 offensive line starters (plus the main backup). Here is their projected depth chart at this point.
2020 Depth Chart
* returning 2019 starters in bold
· QB – RS JR Myles Brennan (injured), FR TJ Finley/FR Max Johnson
· RB – SO John Emery Jr, RS SO Chris Curry, SO Tyrion Davis-Price
· WR – SR Racey McMath, SO Trey Palmer
· WR –
JR Terrace Marshall Jr, FR Koy Moore, RS SO Jaray Jenkins
· WR – FR Kayshon Boutte, SR Jontre Kirklin
· TE – FR Arik Gilbert, SR Tory Carter, FR Kole Taylor, RS SO Nick Storz
· LT – RS SO Cameron Wire, FR Xavier Hill
· LG – JR Ed Ingram, FR Marlon Martinez, RS FR Thomas Perry
· C – GR Liam Shanahan, RS FR Charles Turner
· RG – JR Chasen Hines, RS FR Anthony Bradford, RS FR Kardell Thomas
· RT –
SR Austin Deculus, RS SO Cameron Wire, FR Marcus Dumervil
· Opt Out –
JR WR Ja’Marr Chase · Suspended – starting
RS SO Dare Rosenthal Passing
338.4 yds/gm (12th), 14 TD (24th), 62% completion rate (55th), 8.5 yds/att (28th)
The focus of the Tiger’s 2019 offense was their Heisman-winning QB, Joe Burrow. In his LSU-debut, Burrow completed 57.8% of his passes for 2,894 yards, 16 TD, 5 Int, and a 133.21 passer efficiency rating. With the arrival of Joe Brady, Burrow completed 76.3% of his passes for 5,671 yards, 60 TD, 6 Int, and a 201.96 passer rating (just behind Tua’s 206.93). Perhaps the single-most improved season in history, Burrow was deadly accurate through the air, and he made good decisions to minimize turnovers and get the ball to open receivers in space. We must understand Burrow’s role and impact on LSU’s success in order to know what to expect with the inauguration of their 2020 starter, Myles Brennan.
Brennan is a RS Junior and is the only quarterback on LSU’s roster with collegiate game experience. As a backup in 2019, he was 24/40 (60%) for 353 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int, and a 137.38 passer rating. Keep in mind that Burrow played far into the end of the game, even in upsets. Brennan didn’t attempt any passes unless LSU was up by 15+, and didn’t throw any passes in the first half of any games. On third downs, Brennan completed 50% of his passes and compiled a 111.60 passer rating. It is safe to say that Brennan has not seen any meaningful snaps in college, as he only attempted 15 passes against SEC opponents, completing 33% for one TD and INT each - for a 108.08 passer rating. Brennan is untested and inexperienced, and he hasn’t shown any signs that inspire confidence in his ability. Will he be the next Joe Burrow? No. But, is he capable of winning the SEC? Also no.
Brennan has been serviceable for the Tigers this year, completing only 60.3% of his passes, although he has 11 TD to 3 Int. He averaged 370.7 passing y/g in his 3 starts this year, but he has missed LSU’s last two games due to a lower body injury (some speculate the injury is related to how much LSU fans jerked him off in the offseason). On Wednesday, Nov 4, Orgeron said Brennan is “very doubtful” to be healthy to play in the Alabama game. Most experts agree this is a great business decision for Myles.
TJ Finley started LSU’s game against South Carolina and led them to a big win. Finley went 17/21 for 265 yards, 2 TD and 1 Int. Finley’s best attribute however is his size. TJ stands 6’6” tall and weighs in at 242 lbs. He looks every inch and pound as big when watching him on the field.
After LSU’s biggest win of the season against 2-4 South Carolina, Finley got the start against Auburn in their last game. He went 15/24 for 174 yards and 1 TD and a QBR of 34.0 before being replaced by FR Max Johnson. It seems that Max Johnson’s most impressive quality is his top-notch name, which is admittedly elite. His quarterback play, however, leaves a lot to be desired. He went 13/24 for 143 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 Ints, resulting in a QBR of 20.2. TJ Finley is most likely going to start against Alabama, but one thing is for sure: If the Tigers need elite QB play to challenge Alabama, they should keep looking.
Rushing
119.6 rush yds/gm (100th), 5 TD (76th), 3.5 yds/car (93rd)
By simply looking at LSU’s total rushing defense last year, you might think their main rusher was not very good. However, Edwards-Helaire averaged an impressive 6.58 y/car and 94.27 y/g. He also played a role in the receiving game with 30.2 rec y/g. So, what’s on the horizon for LSU’s 2020 rushing campaign?
LSU had four players with rushing yards outside of EH, Burrow and Brennan, and WR Ja’Marr Chase: Soph. Tyrion Davis-Prince (295 yds), Soph. Chris Curry (189 yds), Soph. John Emery Jr. (188 yds), and Lanard Fournette (36 yds). Fournette left the team after four games in 2019.
The projected starter is Tyrion Davis-Price (DP) as he was the main backup in 2019. He is a tough runner that can be difficult to bring down, and his weaknesses are his blocking and pass-catching. He only had 8 carries in the postseason, so his experience is still a bit limited.
Chris Curry’s accomplishment is that he was the leading rusher against Oklahoma in the playoffs, rushing for 90 yards on 16 carries. On the season, Curry averaged 5.03 y/c with a long of 20 yards including 3 carries in the red zone for 10 yards (3.33 y/c). Within the program, Curry shares Marshawn Lynch’s nickname “Beast Mode” because of Curry’s strength and ability to run through tackles.
John Emery Jr. is a former 5-star recruit and the most highly touted back coming into Baton Rouge. Although he is probably the fastest and most agile back on the current roster, he struggled in pass protection and dropped several passes last year. He was also legally blind in one eye and had LASIK eye surgery this offseason. Time will tell if this has truly improved his vision.
Emery and Davis-Price have led the rushing charge for the Tigers, totaling 246 and 245 yds respectively. Neither has looked particularly impressive, especially in the absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Receiving
338.4 yds/gm (12th), 14 TD (24th), 62% completion rate (55th), 8.5 yds/att (28th)
One of LSU’s two offensive position groups with a returning starter is wide receiver. Ja’Marr Chase was the Tigers’ leading receiver in 2019, and he was expected to be the team’s best offensive (and possibly overall) player in 2020. Chase caught 84 passes for 1,780 yards and 20 TDs while averaging 21.19 y/cat and 127.1 y/g which was good for 2nd nationally. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Chase has opted out of the 2020 season and will declare for the 2021 NFL Draft, ending his time with LSU.
Marshall was third on the team with 671 receiving yards on 46 catches, behind only Chase and Justin Jefferson in receiving yards. He had 13 TD and averaged 55.9 y/g. Lots of LSU fans believe Marshall would have been just as good as Chase if he had stayed healthy. He missed games against Utah St, Florida, and Miss St with a foot fracture.
After Marshall, LSU only had one other player with more than 100 receiving yards on the season in Racey McMath. McMath is listed as a senior, though he has not started to date. He saw significant playing time last year having the sixth-most catches on the team. He only had two catches in his freshman and sophomore seasons.
Marshall has emerged as the clear #1 target this season, capturing a third of the team’s receiving yards. He has caught 9 TDs so far, which is good for 2nd in the country currently (Smitty has 8, and Waddle had 4, so expect Smitty to surpass him Saturday). Marshall also is averaging 108 receiving y/g, which is 22nd in the country (behind both Smitty and Waddle).
LSU’s #2 target is their TE, Arik Gilbert, who only has 259 yards and 2 TDs on the season. He and the rest of the receivers haven’t done enough to merit reporting.
Offensive Line
2.6 sacks allowed/gm (82nd), 7 TFL allowed/gm (33rd)
Besides QB, this is where the biggest drop-off for LSU is expected. LSU returns 2019 SR RT Austin Deculus, but must replace LT Saahdiq Charles, OG Damien Lewis, OG Adrian Magee, C Lloyd Cushenberry, and the main OL replacement Badara Traore.
Starting at LT is RS SO Cameron Wire. He is replacing Dare Rosenthall who has been suspended indefinitely from the team. Wire only played 35 snaps in 2019, so he has a lot to learn still.
JR Ed Ingram is listed as the starting LG. Ingram started 12 games at RG as a true freshman, then served a year-long suspension following his arrest for two counts of sexual assault charges and being indicted by a Texas grand jury. DeSoto Police Department would not disclose the victim’s age, but confirmed they were a minor. The case was dropped, and details are limited because the attorney general placed the case under official seal. During the suspension and court proceedings, Orgeron said “I think that maybe, maybe, if things go right, we may get him at some part of the season. I don’t know exactly when, but hopefully we get him at some part of the season…”
Starting Center is Liam Shanahan, a Harvard transfer. His backup is RS FR Charles Turner.
The starting RG is JR Chasen Hines. Hines played snaps in 10 games last year without any starts.
RT will be the only known commodity with returning SR Austin Deculus. RS FR Thomas Perry is his backup. All told, the OL starters and backups include 1 SR, 2 JR, 2 SO, and 8 FR.
Defense
Scoring Defense: 33.6 pts/g (84th)
Total Defense: 478.6 yds/g (111th)
Passing Defense: 335.2 yds/g (119th)
Rushing Defense: 143.4 yds/g (52nd)
Misc. stats: +4 turnover margin (15th), 2.8 sacks/gm (34th), 7 TFL/gm (33rd), 5 INTs (49th), 6 fum recov (10th), 6 fum forced (24th), 46.97% opp 3rd down conv. (100th), 40% opp 4th down conv. (20th), 21.2 opp 1st downs/gm (57th), opp RZ %’s – TD 57.89% (42nd), score 73.68% (22nd)
Returning starters: 4 (plus 1 opting out of 2020 season)
LSU’s 2019 defense was… not what it has been in years past. 59th is the lowest LSU’s pass defense has been ranked since 2015. They also lost several key starters from last year, most notably S Grant Delpit, OLB K’Lavon Chaisson, ILB Patrick Queen, and ILB Jacob Phillips. Projected starters DT Tyler Shelvin, and DB Kary Vincent Jr (less likely to start) have opted out of the 2020 season to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft. That leaves the Tiger’s defense with 4 returning starters: DL Glen Logan, LB Damone Clark, CB Derek Stingley Jr., and S JaCoby Stevens. Let’s look at the roster and specific position groups.
LSU has certainly missed Dave Aranda this year. Bo Pelini has not proved up to the challenge of stopping the modern passing offenses they have faced. Bo Nix, who is completing 57.6% of his passes and has thrown 16 TDs and 6 INTs completed 75% of his passes against LSU for 3 TDs and 0 INTs. In their debut, they gave up 600+ passing yards to a QB who has now been benched in favor of a freshman. LSU fans must continually tell themselves that 2019 was worth it while plugging their ears and looking the other way in 2020.
2020 Projected Depth Chart
· RDE – FR BJ Ojulari, RS SR Andre Anthony, FR Phillip Webb, RS FR Desmond Little
· LDE – JTR Ali Gaye, RS STR Travez Moore, RS SO Jarell Cherry
· DT – RS FR Joseph Evans, SR Neil Farrell Jr., FR Jacobian Guillory
· DT –
RS SR Glen Logan, RS JTR Soni Fonua, SR Neil Farrell Jr., FR Jaquelin Roy
· OLB – JR Micah Baskerville, RS SR Ray Thornton, FR Antoine Sampah
· OLB –GR Jabril Cox, SO Devonta Lee, RS JR Jared Small
· MLB –
JR Damone Clark, FR Josh White
· CB –
SO Derek Stingley Jr, SO Jay Ward, GR Darren Evans, FR Dwight McGlothern
· CB – SO Cordale Flott, FR Eli Ricks, RS FR Raydarious Jones
· FS –
SR JaCoby Stevens, RS SR Cameron Lewis
· SS – RS JR Todd Harris Jr, SO Maurice Hampton Jr, FR Jordan Toles
· Opt Out – SR FS Kary Vincent Jr.,
RS JR NT Tyler Shelvin (13), RS SO DL Nelson Jenkins III
Defensive Line
2.8 sacks/gm (34th), 7 TFL/gm (33rd)
With Bo Pelini replacing Dave Aranda as Defensive Coordinator, LSU uses a 4-3 scheme as opposed to 3-4 which was preferred by Aranda. Despite the losses of Rashard Lawrence and Breiden Fehoko, the defensive line looked to have good depth going into 2020 before Tyler Shelvin opted out of the 2020 season. Additionally, TK McLendon, who was named as the left end starter during spring camp, entered the transfer portal in August. Another blow came when Justin Thomas, the named starting right end, was announced to have left the team unexpectedly in August. Thomas was a strong contender to start at defensive end, where he started one game last year, played in five, and had a recurring role in LSU’s 3rd-down pass rush package. Shelvin was a returning starter.
That leaves former linebacker Andre Anthony as the only end with any starts. The freshman Ojulari has carved out for himself a starting role on the end ahead of Anthony. The middle of the line will feature returning starter Glen Logan. Logan is one of the leaders of the DL as the only DT with any starts.
Linebackers
46.97% opp 3rd down conv. (100th), 40% opp 4th down conv. (20th)
The linebackers are one of the most inexperienced group on LSU’s 2020 defense. After losing both OLBs and one of their two MLBs from their 4-backer scheme, only MLB Damone Clark returns to the middle of the field. Clark took over Michael Divinity’s role on the outside and provided a lot of support in that part of the field, although he was overshadowed by departures Patrick Queen, Jacob Phillips, and K’Lavon Chaisson.
Ray Thornton Jr. saw limited playing time at OLB behind Clark, Marcel Brooks, and Michael Divinity, recording only 9 total tackles on the season. He has been a regular backup on the outside.
Micah Baskerville has limited playing time, and his time in the program has earned him the start over Thornton.
Jabril Cox brings a lot of playing time and experience from NDSU, and he also played for Pelini at Youngtown State. With his playing time and experience in a winning program like NDSU, he has earned the starting job opposite Baskerville.
Secondary
5 INTs (49th), 14 PBUs (69th), 19 passes defended (68th), 54 opp passes 10+ yds (74th), 30 opp passes 20+ yds (117th), 17 opp passes 30+ yds (118th), opp passes of 40+, 50+, 60+, 70+, 80+, and 90+ (110th or worse for all), LSU is one of only 5 teams to give up a 90+ yd pass
The secondary looked to be LSU’s strongest unit on defense this year. They returned CB Derek Stingley and S JaCoby Stevens who were both regular starters last year. Todd Harris has become the starter at SS and moved Stevens to FS. Outside of Stingley, CB Cordale Flott is the only other CB with meaningful playing time. Many expected Kary Vincent to play at corner and/or safety before he opted out of the 2020 season. With Vincent’s decision to withdraw, LSU has very little depth at safety or corner.
The rushing defense has actually been average for the Tigers this year, but the passing defense has been downright abysmal. Ranking at the bottom of the NCAA in most passing defensive categories, they should not prove to be much of a challenge for Mac Jones and the Bama 10.
Special Teams
2020 Projected Depth Chart
· P –
RS SR Zach Von Rosenberg (39), JR Avery Atkins
· PK –
SO Cade York (15) · KO –
JR Avery Atkins · LS – RS FR Quentin Skinner
· PKR –
SO Derek Stingley Jr., SO Trey Palmer
* for kicking and punting starts, I used 1) LSU’s official game starts or 2) number of games the team played that season if the player was the primary starter for the role
Punting
Fortunately for LSU, one of the players they have utilized the most in 2020 returns plenty of experience. Punter Zach Von Rosenberg has been the primary punter since 2017. He is averaging 47.05 yards per punt in 2020.
Kicking
The Tigers also return their placekicker, Cade York. York is 8/10 on FGs and 21/21 on XPs this year. Avery Atkins returns as the kickoff specialist. Atkins has 33 KOs with 28 touchbacks (84.85%).
Returning
Stingley has been the primary punt/kick returner. He has only had to return 3 punts this year, averaging 30.67 (48 yds came on one return). Trey Palmer has returned 6 kickoffs averaging 36.5 yds/return, including a 93 yd TD return.
Coaching
Orgeron’s early coaching days included coaching the defensive line for Miami beginning in 1988. He began coaching the 1992 season in which his Canes were trounced by Alabama in the national title game, but his tenure was cut short when he was arrested following a bar fight in Baton Rouge, LA, during which Orgeron admits he was intoxicated.
“Coach O” is in his fourth full year as the head coach at LSU (he was the interim coach for most of the 2016 season). As head coach, his records beginning in 2016 are 6-2, 9-4, 10-3, 15-0. He has improved each year (until 2020). Arguably his most effective coaching decision has been hiring “Passing Game Coordinators.” He hired Joe Brady for the role in 2019, and Brady hand-crafted their offensive scheme which was extremely effective.
Coach O gained national recognition in 2019 after his team beat Alabama (his first time since coming to LSU, the first LSU win vs the Tide since the 2011 season) and he made the comments “We’re going to beat [Alabama’s] ass in recruiting. We’re going to beat their ass every time they see us. You understand me? Roll Tide what? Fuck you!” The coach then promptly finished multiple spots behind Alabama in the 2020 recruiting class, and currently trails Alabama for the 2021 recruiting class by a wide margin. His head coaching record against Alabama is 1-7, and he is 1-5 coaching against Nick Saban.
Orgeron currently has the Tigers at 2-3 for the year. After 2019, some speculated Orgeron may be on the same coaching tier as Saban with the great team they fielded. 2020 has shown that Orgeron hasn’t figured out how to deal with losing talent to the NFL, including players and coaches (something Saban encounters on an annual basis).
Ensminger became the offensive coordinator in 2016 under Orgeron. His style includes a hurry-up no-huddle tempo (HUNH) and using the run-pass option (RPO). He has said that no matter what formation they line up in, he wants them to be able to throw the quick pass. We saw this implemented last year with Joe Brady coordinating the passing game. Look for a similar style and scheme in 2020. The challenge will be coming up with new routes and plays to get receivers open the way that Joe Brady managed to do.
Defensive Coordinator: Bo Pelini
Former Nebraska head coach and former LSU defensive coordinator was rehired for the DC position for the 2020 season. Pelini utilizes the 4-3 defensive scheme which includes 4 down linemen and 3 linebackers. The benefit of a 4-3 defense is that you can typically get a better push against the offensive line, resulting in better run-blocking or more pass-rush. However, since each down lineman is responsible for a single line gap, it is more vulnerable to the play-action (PA) pass. Another concern for the Tigers is that with so many departures on the defensive line, they will have a lot of inexperience having to make decisions. It also forces the defense to use a defensive end instead of a linebacker for extra pass-support.
Scott Linehan will replace the biggest void on the LSU coaching staff, Joe Brady. Linehan is the product of John L. Smith, who was the last college coach he worked under. He last coached for the Dallas Cowboys, leading their passing game and serving as offensive coordinator.
We won’t know what similarities or differences Linehan’s offense will share with Brady’s, but a major difference will be the personnel available. LSU loses Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase at receiver, QB Joe Burrow, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and 4/5 offensive linemen. I would expect the Tigers’ 2020 offense to look similar to 2018.
Matchups
Alabama leads the all-time series with LSU 53-26-5, boasting a 66.1% win percentage. The largest victory belongs to Alabama, 47-3 in 1922. The longest streak also belongs to the Tide, with 11 consecutive wins from 1971-1981. Alabama recently won 8 consecutive games against LSU despite LSU being ranked in each loss, including being ranked in the top-10 five times and in the top-5 four times. LSU was shut out in three of the eight games (37.5%) including the January 9, 2012 matchup in the national championship game held in New Orleans, LA, a short 90-minute drive from Baton Rouge.
LSU’s win over Alabama last season marked the fourth victory for the Tigers over Alabama since Nick Saban came to Tuscaloosa. The Tide have enjoyed ten wins over the last fourteen seasons. The four Alabama losses had a total point difference of 18, including three of them being five points or fewer. In the same time span, Alabama has outscored LSU by 135 in the remaining games, resulting in a 117-point advantage for Alabama since 2007.
Since Nick Saban’s arrival in 2007, the early-November matchups between the Tigers and the Tide have often been competitive and tension-filled. Of the 14 Saban vs. LSU games, half have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Another 4 games were decided by 14 pts or fewer, leaving only 3 of the 14 games being won (all by Alabama) by more than two scores. The 4 LSU wins in this time span were all by 7 points or fewer. The teams have gone to overtime thrice, and surprisingly the visiting team has won all three times (Alabama 2, LSU 1). On a related note, Alabama has been dominant in the supposedly-daunting “Death Valley” holding an all-time 28-9-2 record in Baton Rouge, as well as winning 5 of the last 6 games there, including the last 4.
Although Alabama and LSU have not been rivals historically, the series has been split since 2000, with Alabama holding a close 11-10 series lead. Also, since Bear Bryant retired, Alabama has controlled the series 22-15-1. Despite the recent competitiveness of the “rivalry,” a 2009 poll of SEC fans revealed that Alabama fans mostly did not consider LSU to be a rival, while over 60% of LSU fans singled out Alabama as their most bitter rival. This no doubt stems from the fact that Nick Saban previously coached at LSU from 2000-2004. Saban compiled a 48-16 record at LSU while winning LSU’s second ever national championship, and their first in 45 years. Saban left LSU to try his hand at head coaching in the NFL. He found success hard to come by, and decided to return to coaching college. LSU did not want Saban back, instead preferring to keep then-coach Les Miles, so Saban took the best job on the table- Alabama. For some reason, LSU took this as a personal insult of the highest order and have hated Saban and Alabama ever since. The Tigers have only managed to beat Saban’s Alabama in Baton Rouge once.
Ole Miss is undoubtedly LSU’s longest-standing and most significant rival. The Tigers lead the Landsharks all-time 63-40-4, but recent history is even more lopsided as Ole Miss has only managed to beat LSU five times since 2000.
In the “Magnolia Bowl,” LSU and Ole Miss have produced some exciting rivalry games. Probably the most famous was 1959’s “Cannon’s Halloween Run” in which #1 LSU’s Billy Cannon had an 89-yard punt return TD late in the game, breaking 7 tackles en route to what would be the game winning score. On Ole Miss’s ensuing drive, they made it all the way to LSU’s 1 yard line, but were stopped as time expired. The teams would have a rematch in the Sugar Bowl (effectively the national championship that year) and Ole Miss routed the Tigers 21-0. This would not be the last time LSU would lose a national championship 21-0 in the Sugar Bowl in a rematch to a team they narrowly beat in the regular season.
Arkansas has been a traditional rival for LSU. The two first played in 1901 in Baton Rouge, with LSU winning 15-0. They played until 1936, but the series stopped until 1991 when Arkansas joined the SEC and defeated LSU in Fayetteville 30-6. Overall, LSU holds a 41-22-2 lead in the series.
The LSU-Arkansas winner takes home “The Golden Boot” trophy, or just “The Boot.” This is because the trophy, which outlines the states of Louisiana and Arkansas, forms what looks like a boot. The 175 lb, 4” tall trophy is made of 24-karat gold.
LSU’s oldest rival is found in New Orleans, LA. The Tulane Green Wave first played LSU in 1892. LSU and Tulane were each members of the SIAA from 1899, the Southern Conference from 1922 to 1932, and charter members of the SEC from 1932 to 1966. The matchup is known as the “Battle for the Rag,” with LSU referring to it as the Tiger Rag, and Tulane calling it the Victory Flag. The flag shows each school’s logos divided diagonally with the Seal of Louisiana in the center.
While the series was somewhat competitive to begin with LSU leading 23-18-5, the Tigers have gone 45-4-2 since, including winning the last 18 matchups. LSU leads the all-time series 69-23-7. The teams met on the field once from 1997 to 2005, but they renewed the series in 2006. After their 2009 matchup, LSU offered Tulane to either play the remaining games in Baton Rouge or end the series early for a small payout. Tulane took the buyout deal and the teams have not met since.
Mascot
Perhaps one of the most famous college mascots is LSU’s
Mike the
Tiger. Traditionally, Mike is a Bengal tiger, although the last three iterations have been mixed-breeds. Mike VII is a Bengal-Serbian mix. LSU adopted the tiger as mascot referencing the Louisiana-native troops in Robert E. Lee’s Army of Northern Virginia in the civil war, as they were known as “the Tigers.” LSU’s may be the only SEC mascot to pay homage to confederate nostalgia since Ole Miss rebranded themselves as the
Admiral Ackbars Landsharks.
Each Mike has generally been in good hands in Baton Rouge, as LSU’s vet school is exceptional. A new, 15,000 square foot habitat was created for Mike in 2005 for $3 million. . He can be seen eating, sleeping, roaming, or playing on any given day in his home on campus.
According to legend, LSU will score a touchdown for every one of Mike’s roars on game day. Mike VI and Mike VII have come under scrutiny for not roaring enough on Alabama game days.
Lagniappe
Misc. program stats
· 812-415-47 (.656) all-time record (13th)
· 812 all-time wins (12th)
· 4 national championships (16th)
· 16 conference championships (31st)
· 52 bowl game appearances (8th)
· 28-23-1 (.548) bowl record (27th)
· 39 consensus all-Americans (14th)
· 2 Heisman winners (11th)
· 352 NFL Draft picks (10th)
· 635 weeks in AP poll (10th)
· Conference foes Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee hold series leads over LSU
· LSU’s last two head coaches each left the program with one national championship
· Current head coach Ed Orgeron has one national championship
· LSU has not scored against Alabama in Death Valley since 2014
· In LSU’s last five games in Louisiana against Alabama, they have scored a total of 30 points (includes 3 shutouts)
Jerseys
The current style of jerseys were introduced by head coach Paul Dietzel in 1957. While it is customary for the home football team to wear their primary color and the visitor to wear white, LSU also prefers to wear
white jerseys for both home and away games. From 1983 to 1994, the NCAA mandated visiting teams to wear white. From 1994-1999, LSU often wore
gold in lieu of
purple due to then-head coach
Gerry DiNardo’s understandable dislike of the color purple. In 1995, the NCAA changed the rule to allow the home team to wear white with visitor’s prior approval. In 1997, the SEC ruled that the home team can wear their color of choice without consent of SEC visiting teams. While LSU wears white to home games, they occasionally wear purple or gold similarly to how other teams have a white-out or black-out game.
Nick Saban and Matt Mauck led the Tigers to a national title in 2003 with Mauck wearing No. 18. The No. 18 jersey “became synonymous with success on and off the field as well as having a selfless attitude.” Each season, a player is chosen by the coaching staff to wear the No. 18 jersey.
Other traditions
Tiger stadium has two defining characteristics on the field that contrast from most other colleges. First, the field displays all
5-yard line numbers on the field instead of just the 10-yard line numbers. Only the 10-yard lines have directional arrows, however. Second, Tiger stadium features
“H”-style goal posts instead of the more popular “Y” style. This is allegedly to double players’ chances of injury due to impact with the posts.
About an hour before kickoff, the players, coaches, band, and cheerleaders march down a hill to the North of the Stadium. Ironically, this is called
Victory Hill despite the tradition preceding many, many losses.
Night games in Tiger Stadium have become iconic in Baton Rouge. Statistically, LSU has performed better at home during night games. According to LSU’s 2016 Media Guide, LSU was 320-105-13 (.745) in night games through the 2015 season. Unfortunately for the Tigers, LSU is 0-4 in night games in Tiger Stadium against Saban’s Crimson Tide.
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Please watch: "My experience managing a store for Ingles Markets and how it ended badly" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeElbWKUdUU --~--Another week of hea... Tepper's favorite segment... America's most hated segment... regardless... here's his Free Money picks against the spread for week 8. Please watch: "CLEMSON VS LSU OFFICIAL PREDICTION! WHO IS JACK BACKIN ?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9eGKK7gBCU --~-- Morgan and Alan give you their picks for the ACC and ranked vs ranked matchups scheduled for week 8 of college football.--ACC--Pittsburgh at SyracuseNC State... Join Power 5 Fanatics as we discuss this week slate of college football games and try to pick against the spread #cfb #cfp #playoffs #collegefootball #picks ... Greg Tepper of Dave Campbell's Texas Football offers his thoughts on a few spreads this weekend, including the interesting line on the Hilltop and Texas A&M'... Please watch: "My experience managing a store for Ingles Markets and how it ended badly" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeElbWKUdUU --~--
